2019 Projections and Predictions

WE ARE BACK FOLKS. The winter was a long, cold, SOB that welcomed plenty of change to this Yankees roster; and while it might not have been what we all hoped for, the Yankees still enter 2019 as a juggernaut club, even in the American League’s competitive top tier.

If there’s one thing we can agree on headed into the 2019 campaign, it’s that this ball club will go as far as the man pictured above will take them. It was great to watch Aaron Judge mash in spring training, but whats ignites true excitement is to see him healthy. No shoulder issues, no lingering pain in the hand/wrist — this is 99 in his fullest form. I don’t know how many teams in professional sports can say their most talented player is also their most motivated player, but the Yankees are on the short list.

Still, baseball is a game that — by it’s very nature — limits a players ability to carry a team. Aaron Judge is only going to get up 3-to-4 times a night, Chris Sale is only going to pitch once over the course of 5 days, so-on and so-fourth. Baseball challenges the entire roster to be ready to overcome individual battles throughout the course of the night, and like we’ve seen over the course of Mike Trout’s career, even the greatest performers can be pulled into baseball purgatory.

We know what Aaron Judge will bring to the table, but who else could the Yankees lean on throughout the season? This team is stacked, so I’m going to (try to) avoid “low-hanging” fruit, and talk about specific predictions I’m forecasting for this season

LUKE VOIT GOES TO THE ALL-STAR GAME

Got to give it up to Greg here with this one. It never dawned on me how underwhelming the American League was at this position until I saw this tweet and looked into it. If you’re failing to recall the AL’s first-basement in the mid-summer classic, thats okay, it was José Abreu.

Abreu is no pushover, and was rumored to be in trade talks with the Yankees not too long ago; but it’s also very reasonable to think that the .265/.353/.516 slash line he finished 2018 with can be outshined in the first half of the upcoming campaign. If you just compare Abreu to Voit, the White Sox slugger had just 6 more homers in roughly 350 more ABs, and as we’ve seen during the spring, Luke Voit doesn’t appear to be a one-hit-wonder.

Voit has been an awesome find, and when you dive into the advanced numbers, it makes you wonder how he fell through the cracks. Voit’s batted ball profile on MLB’s Baseball Savant has him side-by-side with some notable big-league sluggers, namely: Khris Davis, Max Muncy, Shohei Ohtani, and Aaron Judge. Coming off a late season run where Voit’s barrel % was 20% and his average exit velocity was 93mph, it would be ludicrous not to expect some regression. However, there’s no doubt that he’ll be contending for that all-star spot come January.

As long as he can keep the Yankees 1B job.

OTTAVINO LEADS THE BULLPEN IN APPEARANCES

Are you ready to watch this guy throw a baseball on a nightly basis? Sure, you might feel that adding another nasty pitcher to an already insane bullpen won’t make the world of a difference, but allow me to explain how Adam Ottavino is going to change the Yankees bullpen attack.

Lets use assume health for a moment, and put the relievers into roles:

Closer — Chapman (Britton)

Set Up — Betances (Britton, Ottavino)

7th — Britton (Betances, Green, Ottavino)

Lefty — Tarpley

Mid — Green/Holder/Kahnle

Long — German/Cessa

Opener(?) — Green (Holder)

Notice that I didn’t assign a primary role to Ottavino. That’s because it doesn’t exist. Aside from filling in for a tired Betances or Britton, he doesn’t slot into a place in this bullpen. The new school of bullpen management strays away from assigned roles, but from what we saw the Yankees do last season, we can tell this much; Chappy is going to be the closer unless his command falls apart, Britton is going to back him up, and both Britton and Betances are going to get the bulk of the work in the final 3 innings.

That leaves Ottavino as a weapon X of sorts. My guess is that the Yankees will look to deploy him in crucial spots prior to late innings, and occasionally, when they feel better about a certain matchup in the late innings. Why is this so important? Well, although Ottavino is far from a “righty specialist” Ottavino’s 4.47 K/BB ratio and 1.42 BAA versus right-handed hitting in 2018 are still world class numbers that the Yankees will value.

Think about it; Martinez, Betts, Bregman, Altuve, Correa (Guerrero?, Pedroia?) — These are the guys that are going to make Adam Ottavino pop in this equation. Having the depth and flexibility to utilize a player this talented at any point in the game is going to make to take the Yankees bullpen to another level

GLEYBER’S STOCK RISES, MIGGY’S STOCK FALLS

(a little)

I don’t want this to come off as an Andújar bash, because the truth is, I don’t know how he’s going to follow up his rookie season. Everyone with the Yankees seems to be optimistic about his defense, and he hasn’t had an injury or a significant slow-down in offensive production that’s been worth flagging.

What I can tell you is that it’s going to be harder for Andújar to improve upon what he did in 2018 than for Torres — and that statement requires some fleshing out.

The first, and most glaring comparison between these two studs is BA and OBP. Andújar hit .297 as a rookie — an amazing feat — but hard to maintain. Torres hit .271, not at all something to scoff at, but one could argue that the expectation was higher for Torres due to his prospect status, and the scorching start he got off too.

Now for OBP.

Even as Andújar carried a 26 point lead in batting average, Gleyber’s .340 OBP bested Andújar’s .328, and in large part to Miggy’s 4.1% walk percentage (bottom 4% in MLB). I know this might sound like I’m grasping at straws over 12 points, but Gleyber’s ability to eclipse and surpass Andújar in this category highlights the main difference between the two hitters: plate vision.

So how does this correlate with my prediction? By all regards, Andújar could continue to be more dangerous at the plate (SLG%), but it’s simply harder to hit .300, and if his batting average falls even 15 points, his OBP and plate discipline could become a point of concern for the Yankees. Miggy’s BABIP was .316 last season, but with an exit velocity of 89.2mph, his xBA (.277) suggests that he hit into a little bit of luck.

In the spirit of transparency, those metrics all favor Andújar. Gleyber actually had a higher BABIP (.321), with a marginally lower exit velocity (88.7), and a significantly lower xBA (.255); all which point towards the opposite result of my prediction. He also had a higher K rate, but I think that is more related to Andújar’s unique ability to make contact outside the zone (65.5%), compared to Gleyber’s (52.2%).

So what I’m asking you to believe in is a healthy Gleyber, who is conditioned and motivated. In 2018, the two months that saw Torres’ production drop-off the most were July and September; the month he was hurt, and the month he had never played in meaningful baseball games in before. Torres has looked healthy and exciting in the spring, and although I can’t prove this, I want to believe he’s extra motivated to perform. He was a top prospect when he broke on in 2018, tore up the joint, got derailed by an injury, was outshined by Andújar and Ohtani, and made his way back only to be the final out of the Yankees season, which had to fucking suck.

So I’m not selling on Miguel Andújar, but I’m buying on Gleyber Torres, and I am excited to watch these two grow-up together as Yankees.

OPENING DAY LINEUP

Everyones got one, so heres what I think the lineup card looks like Thursday:

CF — Gardner

RF — Judge

LF — Stanton

1B — Voit

3B — Andújar

DH — Bird

C — Sanchez

2B — Torres

SS — Tulowitski

Bettors beware.

SEASON RESULT

This is it folks. No more dancing around the truth. The Yankees have one more season to avoid the first decade long stretch without a World Series appearance in franchise history, and it’s not going to be easy.

Yes, I do think they’re going to get there. I think this club is motivated in a different way than they have been in previous seasons. In 2017, they were a young team with nothing to lose, and in 2018, it was the washed-up “unfinished business” narrative, which never seems to work out for anyone (see Indians, Dodgers, Mets). Nothing changed for the Yankees, and they were embarrassed by Boston in the playoffs, which appears to have resonated on a personal level with this club. When you hear Aaron Judge go on the airwaves before the season starts to talk about the objective to “dominate every series”, it shows that the team is searching for something they didn’t have in last year’s 100-win campaign. The Yankees are well aware of how poor they played against the bottom of baseball last season, how it changed the standings, and seem to want to change that narrative this season.

So here’s my guess:

Record: 101–63, AL EAST CHAMPS, 2nd in playoff seeding to HOU

ALDS: NYY beats CLE in 5

ALCS: NYY beats BOS in 7

WS: NYY beats CHC in 5