Is this the year for Jameson Taillon?
As pitchers and catchers begin their formalized work, the Yankees welcome two new faces to their championship cause: Corey Kluber and Jameson Taillon
Kluber has been a familiar foe in recent seasons, and Yankees fans have fond memories of Didi Gregorius’ heroics against the former Cleveland ace in game five of the 2017 ALDS. On the other hand, Jameson Taillon joins the Yankees with less of an established status in the league. Having shown immense promise in the past, Taillon has missed significant time in recent years battling a litany of injuries that include a line drive off the head, a sports hernia, testicular cancer, and Tommy John surgery (twice).
Now, Taillon will look to bring his comeback saga to the league’s biggest stage — and with the available information — Taillon seems poised to produce in pinstripes.
On paper, Taillon appears to be an ideal match for the homer-friendly dimensions of Yankee Stadium. In 2018 (Taillon’s last season of record), Pittsburgh’s right-hander produced Ground Balls 46.2% of the time while allowing less than 1 HR/9, making for an impressive 3.46 FIP. Taillon’s pedestrian strikeout rate of 22.8% was amplified by a walk rate of just 5.1%; which will transition nicely into a ballpark where walks often come back to haunt whoever is on the mound. In summary, Taillon hasn’t shown the propensity to strikeout batters like other Yankee trade targets, but his ability to limit the free pass and the long ball have made up for it.
Something important to watch for in 2021: Taillon threw his Sinker about 20% of the time in 2018 — but in recent interviews — has revealed that a change in his mechanics during his second TJ recovery has shifted his arsenal to be more 4-seam centric. In essence, we’ll be seeing a Jameson Taillon that will likely produce a new variance of outcomes in 2021, and based off of his 4-seam usage in 2018, it may bode well for the Bombers.
An important aspect of pitching in Yankee Stadium is neutralizing the advantage of left-handed batters. Of the 1,045 4-seamers Taillon unleashed in 2018, 612 were sent at southpaw sluggers, and while the numbers on the surface paint a picture of offensive success, LHBs carried a unremarkable wXOBA of .330 with an EV just over 85mph. The pitch graphs display usage of the 4-seamer vs. LHBs to be prevalent in the top half of the zone, a philosophy that has already been embraced by pitchers and pitching minds alike within the Yankees’ organization. Exhibiting increased 4SFB spin with his new mechanics will go a long way in bringing this theory to fruition, but there is certainly reason to believe that this switch will benefit Taillon in the Bronx, even if it means his GB% drops slightly.
Taillon (29 year old) joins the Bombers with a final arbitration year ahead in 2022. This gives the franchise both flexibility and leverage in any further negotiations with a starter who could potentially have 4–6 effective years remaining. Obviously, a lot needs to be shown in terms of durability and capability in 2021 before talks on that front can advance; but these are the little details in acquisitions that have kept the Yankees in a position to optimize their roster during their current championship window.
